Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since October 6, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 13 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 3% |
| 2026-10-13 | 3% |
| 2026-10-12 | 4% |
| 2026-10-11 | 4% |
| 2026-10-10 | 4% |
| 2026-10-09 | 4% |
| 2026-10-08 | 4% |
| 2026-10-07 | 4% |
| 2026-10-06 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- US strike on Mexico by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US strike on Mexico by December 31 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 9 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 3% on November 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US strike on Mexico by December 31” for 9 days, since October 6, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The chance for a yes has held near 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.