Final tracked odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 86%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Politics · tracked since July 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 6, 2026
86%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88% | 86% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 86% |
| 2026-08-05 | 88% |
| 2026-08-04 | 82% |
| 2026-07-28 | 68% |
| 2026-07-27 | 64% |
| 2026-07-21 | 37% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 86%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 37% on July 21, 2026 to 86% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 49 points.
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 37% and 88%. The final reading of 86% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14” for 6 days, since July 21, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 86%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 37% to 86%, ranging between 37% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.