Final tracked odds
As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 56%.
▼ 5 since the previous update. ▲ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 1, 2026
56%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | 56% | ▼ 5 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 56% |
| 2026-08-28 | 62% |
| 2026-08-26 | 64% |
| 2026-08-06 | 42% |
| 2026-08-05 | 42% |
| 2026-08-04 | 44% |
| 2026-08-03 | 46% |
| 2026-08-02 | 42% |
| 2026-08-01 | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 56%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 42% on August 1, 2026 to 56% on September 1, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 42% and 64%. The final reading of 56% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch” for 9 days, since August 1, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 56%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 42% to 56%, ranging between 42% and 64% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.