Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Democrat the most likely outcome at 96%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention?
Everything Else · tracked since August 27, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
96%
How the odds have moved
DemocratBidenFake NewsTrillionStock Market
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 96% | 96% | ▲ 1 |
| Biden | 92% | 94% | ▲ 2 |
| Fake News | 94% | 94% | — |
| Trillion | 92% | 92% | ▲ 1 |
| Stock Market | 92% | 92% | — |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 92% | 92% | — |
| Communist / Communism | 90% | 92% | ▲ 3 |
| Hottest | 92% | 92% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Democrat | Biden | Fake News | Trillion | Stock Market | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Communist / Communism | Hottest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 96% | 94% | 94% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| 2026-09-01 | 96% | 92% | 94% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 90% | 92% |
| 2026-08-31 | 96% | 92% | 94% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 90% | 92% |
| 2026-08-30 | 96% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 90% | 92% |
| 2026-08-29 | 92% | 91% | 84% | 88% | 90% | 90% | — | 91% |
| 2026-08-28 | 91% | 90% | — | 88% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 91% | 90% | — | 76% | — | — | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, Democrat leads at 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 91% on August 27, 2026 to 96% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 91% and 96%. The current reading of 96% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention” for 7 days, since August 27, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, Democrat leads the field at 96%. The chance for Democrat has risen from 91% to 96%, ranging between 91% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.