Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Ebba Busch leads at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
3%
How the odds have moved
Ebba BuschAnna-Karin Hatt
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ebba Busch | 3% | 3% | — |
| Anna-Karin Hatt | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Ebba Busch | Anna-Karin Hatt |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-03 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-02 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-01 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-31 | 2% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-30 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-29 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-28 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-26 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-25 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-24 | 4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-23 | 4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-22 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-21 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-20 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-19 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-18 | 3% | — |
| 2026-10-17 | 3% | — |
| 2026-10-16 | 3% | — |
| 2026-10-15 | 4% | — |
| 2026-10-14 | 4% | — |
| 2026-10-13 | 3% | — |
| 2026-10-12 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-09 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-08 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-07 | 3% | — |
| 2026-10-06 | 3% | — |
| 2026-10-05 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-04 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | 3% | — |
| 2026-10-02 | 2% | — |
| 2026-10-01 | 3% | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | 3% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-28 | 2% | — |
| 2026-09-27 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-26 | 2% | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | 2% | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-19 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-18 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-16 | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-14 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-13 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-12 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-11 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-10 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-09 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-07 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-06 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-05 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-04 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-22 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-21 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 0.4% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 63 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 0.4% on July 7, 2026 to 3% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden” for 63 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Ebba Busch leads at 3%. The chance for the leading outcome has risen from 0.4% to 3%, ranging between 0.4% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.