Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the odds?

As of November 4, 2026, Jon Ossoff leads at 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — have the odds gone up or down?

Up. Over the 38 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 15% on August 5, 2026 to 24% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 9 points.

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 38 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 24%. The current reading of 24% sits at the top of that range.

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 4:01 AM ET

24%

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds make Jon Ossoff the most likely outcome at 24%.

▲ 7 since the previous update. ▲ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Jon OssoffAlexandria Ocasio-CortezGavin NewsomKamala HarrisRaphael Warnock

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Nov 3	Today	Move
Jon Ossoff	17%	24%	▲ 7
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	16%	18%	▲ 2
Gavin Newsom	15%	15%	—
Kamala Harris	5%	3%	▼ 2
Raphael Warnock	3%	2%	▼ 1
Mark Kelly	2%	2%	—
Wes Moore	2%	2%	—
J.B. Pritzker	1.4%	1.4%	—

Full history table

Date	Jon Ossoff	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Gavin Newsom	Kamala Harris	Raphael Warnock	Mark Kelly	Wes Moore	J.B. Pritzker
2026-11-04	24%	18%	15%	3%	2%	2%	2%	1.4%
2026-11-03	17%	16%	15%	5%	3%	2%	2%	1.4%
2026-11-02	15%	16%	15%	5%	3%	2%	2%	1.4%
2026-11-01	15%	16%	16%	6%	3%	2%	2%	1.5%
2026-10-31	15%	16%	16%	6%	2%	2%	2%	1.5%
2026-10-30	15%	17%	16%	5%	2%	2%	2%	1.5%
2026-10-29	15%	16%	16%	5%	2%	2%	2%	1.5%
2026-10-28	15%	16%	17%	6%	2%	2%	2%	1.5%
2026-10-27	15%	16%	17%	6%	2%	2%	2%	2%
2026-10-26	15%	17%	15%	6%	2%	2%	2%	1.5%
2026-10-25	15%	17%	17%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-24	16%	16%	17%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-23	15%	18%	15%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.3%
2026-10-22	15%	17%	15%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.3%
2026-10-21	15%	17%	16%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.3%
2026-10-20	15%	16%	16%	6%	2%	2%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-19	15%	15%	16%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.1%
2026-10-18	14%	15%	16%	7%	2%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-17	14%	17%	15%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-16	14%	17%	15%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.3%
2026-10-15	14%	17%	15%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.3%
2026-10-14	14%	18%	14%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.4%
2026-10-13	15%	18%	14%	7%	2%	2%	2%	1.4%
2026-10-12	14%	18%	15%	6%	2%	2%	2%	1.4%
2026-10-11	15%	18%	15%	6%	1.1%	2%	2%	1.4%
2026-10-10	15%	18%	15%	6%	0.9%	2%	2%	1.4%
2026-10-09	15%	18%	15%	7%	0.9%	2%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-08	15%	18%	18%	7%	1.4%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-07	15%	18%	17%	7%	0.8%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-06	15%	18%	16%	7%	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-05	—	18%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-04	—	17%	17%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-03	—	17%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-02	—	18%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-10-01	—	17%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-30	—	19%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-29	—	19%	17%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-28	—	19%	17%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.4%
2026-09-27	—	19%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.4%
2026-09-26	—	18%	15%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.4%
2026-09-25	—	18%	15%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.4%
2026-09-24	—	18%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-23	—	18%	13%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-22	—	18%	13%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-21	—	18%	13%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-20	—	18%	15%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-19	—	18%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-18	—	19%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-17	—	18%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.2%
2026-09-16	—	18%	16%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-09-15	—	19%	18%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-09-14	—	18%	13%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.3%
2026-09-13	—	19%	13%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.4%
2026-09-12	—	18%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.4%
2026-09-11	—	19%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.4%
2026-09-10	—	19%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.4%
2026-09-09	—	19%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	0.9%
2026-09-08	—	18%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	1.5%	0.9%
2026-09-07	—	18%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-09-06	—	19%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-09-05	—	20%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-09-04	—	20%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-09-03	—	20%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-09-02	—	20%	15%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-09-01	—	20%	15%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-31	—	20%	15%	—	0.5%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-30	—	20%	15%	—	0.5%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-29	—	19%	14%	—	0.5%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-28	—	20%	15%	8%	0.5%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-27	—	21%	15%	8%	0.5%	3%	1.4%	1.1%
2026-08-26	—	21%	14%	7%	0.5%	3%	1.4%	1.1%
2026-08-25	—	21%	14%	7%	0.7%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-24	—	21%	15%	7%	0.7%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-23	—	21%	15%	7%	0.6%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-22	—	19%	15%	7%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-21	—	18%	15%	7%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-20	—	18%	15%	7%	0.6%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-19	—	21%	15%	8%	0.7%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-18	—	19%	16%	8%	0.6%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-17	—	20%	16%	7%	0.7%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-16	—	20%	17%	7%	0.7%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-15	—	20%	16%	7%	0.7%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-14	—	22%	17%	7%	0.7%	3%	2%	1.1%
2026-08-13	—	19%	17%	7%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-12	16%	18%	17%	7%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-11	16%	15%	17%	8%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-10	16%	15%	18%	8%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-09	16%	15%	18%	8%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-08	16%	15%	18%	8%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-07	16%	15%	18%	8%	0.7%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-06	16%	15%	18%	8%	0.5%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-05	15%	14%	18%	8%	0.5%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-04	—	14%	19%	9%	0.5%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-03	—	15%	19%	9%	0.5%	3%	1.5%	1.1%
2026-08-02	—	15%	19%	9%	0.5%	3%	1.4%	1.1%
2026-08-01	—	14%	19%	9%	0.5%	3%	1.4%	1.1%
2026-07-31	—	13%	19%	8%	0.5%	3%	1.4%	1.1%
2026-07-30	—	13%	19%	8%	0.5%	3%	1.4%	1.1%
2026-07-29	—	13%	19%	—	0.5%	3%	1.4%	1.1%
2026-07-28	—	13%	19%	—	0.5%	2%	1.4%	1.1%
2026-07-27	—	14%	19%	—	0.5%	2%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-26	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	2%	1.1%	0.9%
2026-07-25	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	2%	1.1%	0.9%
2026-07-24	—	14%	20%	—	0.7%	2%	1.1%	0.9%
2026-07-23	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	2%	1.1%	0.9%
2026-07-22	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	2%	1.1%	0.9%
2026-07-21	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	2%	1.1%	0.9%
2026-07-20	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	0.9%	1.1%	0.9%
2026-07-19	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	0.9%	1.1%	0.9%
2026-07-18	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-17	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-16	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-15	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-14	—	14%	20%	—	0.5%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-13	—	15%	20%	—	0.7%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-12	—	15%	19%	—	0.7%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-11	—	14%	19%	—	0.7%	0.9%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-10	—	15%	19%	—	0.7%	1.1%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-09	—	15%	18%	—	0.7%	1.1%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-08	—	16%	19%	—	0.7%	1.2%	1.4%	0.9%
2026-07-07	—	16%	18%	—	0.7%	1.2%	1.4%	0.9%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the odds?: As of November 4, 2026, Jon Ossoff leads at 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — have the odds gone up or down?: Up. Over the 38 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 15% on August 5, 2026 to 24% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 38 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 24%. The current reading of 24% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination” for 38 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, Jon Ossoff leads the field at 24%. The chance for Jon Ossoff has risen from 15% to 24%, ranging between 14% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.