Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez the most likely outcome at 19%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
19%
How the odds have moved
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezGavin NewsomMark KellyRahm EmanuelWes Moore
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 20% | 19% | ▼ 1 |
| Gavin Newsom | 14% | 14% | — |
| Mark Kelly | 3% | 3% | — |
| Rahm Emanuel | 3% | 3% | — |
| Wes Moore | 2% | 2% | — |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.1% | 1.1% | — |
| Michelle Obama | 0.7% | 0.7% | — |
| Cory Booker | 0.7% | 0.7% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Gavin Newsom | Mark Kelly | Rahm Emanuel | Wes Moore | J.B. Pritzker | Michelle Obama | Cory Booker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 19% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-05 | 20% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-04 | 20% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-03 | 20% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-02 | 20% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-01 | 20% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-31 | 20% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | 20% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-29 | 19% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-28 | 20% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-27 | 21% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-26 | 21% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-25 | 21% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-24 | 21% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-23 | 21% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-22 | 19% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-21 | 18% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-20 | 18% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-19 | 21% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-18 | 19% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-17 | 20% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-16 | 20% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-15 | 20% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-14 | 22% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-13 | 19% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-12 | 18% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-11 | 15% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-10 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-09 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-08 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-07 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-06 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-05 | 14% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-04 | 14% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-03 | 15% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-02 | 15% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-01 | 14% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-31 | 13% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-30 | 13% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-29 | 13% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-28 | 13% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-27 | 14% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-26 | 14% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-25 | 14% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-24 | 14% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-23 | 14% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-22 | 14% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-21 | 14% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-20 | 14% | 20% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 2026-07-19 | 14% | 20% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-18 | 14% | 20% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-17 | 14% | 20% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-16 | 14% | 20% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 2026-07-15 | 14% | 20% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-14 | 14% | 20% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-13 | 15% | 20% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-12 | 15% | 19% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-11 | 14% | 19% | 0.9% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-10 | 15% | 19% | 1.1% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-09 | 15% | 18% | 1.1% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-08 | 16% | 19% | 1.2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-07 | 16% | 18% | 1.2% | 2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 19%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 62 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on July 7, 2026 to 19% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
- Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 62 tracked days the odds ranged between 13% and 22%. The current reading of 19% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination” for 62 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the field at 19%. The chance for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has risen from 16% to 19%, ranging between 13% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.