The Morning Line

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 4:01 AM ET

31%

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds make J.D. Vance the most likely outcome at 31%.

▼ 5 since the previous update. ▼ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

J.D. VanceRon DeSantisTucker CarlsonTed CruzBrian Kemp
0%25%50%75%100%Aug 7Aug 29Sep 20Oct 13Nov 4J.D. Vance — Aug 7: 43%J.D. Vance — Nov 4: 31%31%Ron DeSantis — Aug 7: 3%Ron DeSantis — Nov 4: 12%Tucker Carlson — Aug 7: 3%Tucker Carlson — Nov 4: 3%Ted Cruz — Aug 7: 0.9%Ted Cruz — Nov 4: 2%Brian Kemp — Aug 7: 0.4%Brian Kemp — Nov 4: 1.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeNov 3TodayMove
J.D. Vance37%31%▼ 5
Ron DeSantis4%12%▲ 7
Tucker Carlson3%3%—
Ted Cruz3%2%—
Brian Kemp0.8%1.1%—
Byron Donalds0.1%0.8%▲ 1
Elon Musk0.7%0.8%—
Rand Paul0.4%0.4%—
Full history table
DateJ.D. VanceRon DeSantisTucker CarlsonTed CruzBrian KempByron DonaldsElon MuskRand Paul
2026-11-0431%12%3%2%1.1%0.8%0.8%0.4%
2026-11-0337%4%3%3%0.8%0.1%0.7%0.4%
2026-11-0236%4%3%3%0.8%0.1%0.8%0.4%
2026-11-0138%4%3%3%0.8%0.1%0.8%0.4%
2026-10-3138%4%3%3%0.8%0.1%0.8%0.4%
2026-10-3039%4%3%2%0.8%0.1%0.7%0.4%
2026-10-2939%4%3%3%0.8%0.1%0.7%0.4%
2026-10-2839%4%3%2%0.8%0.1%0.7%0.4%
2026-10-2738%4%3%2%0.8%0.1%0.7%0.4%
2026-10-2638%4%3%2%0.7%0.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-2544%3%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-2444%3%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-2344%3%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-2244%3%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-2144%3%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-2044%3%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-1944%3%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-1847%2%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-1747%3%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-1647%2%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-1549%2%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-1448%2%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-1349%2%3%2%0.5%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-1248%2%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-1148%2%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-1048%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0948%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0849%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0749%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0649%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0550%3%3%3%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0450%3%—3%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0350%3%—2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0250%3%3%3%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-0150%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-3050%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2951%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2851%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2751%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2651%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2551%3%3%2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2451%3%3%2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2351%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-2251%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2151%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-2051%3%3%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1951%3%4%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1851%3%4%2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1751%3%4%2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1651%2%—2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1551%2%—2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1451%2%—2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1351%2%—2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1251%2%—2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1150%2%4%2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-1050%2%3%2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-0950%2%3%2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-0850%2%3%2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-0750%2%3%2%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-0650%2%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-0550%3%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-0450%2%3%2%0.4%0.4%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-0350%3%3%1.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-0253%3%3%1.2%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.2%
2026-09-0152%3%3%1.2%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.2%
2026-08-3149%2%3%1.2%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.2%
2026-08-3049%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.2%
2026-08-2949%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.2%
2026-08-2848%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-2747%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-2647%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-2547%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-2447%2%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-2347%2%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-2247%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-2147%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-2047%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-1947%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-1847%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-1747%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-1647%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-1547%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.4%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-1447%3%2%0.9%0.2%0.4%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-1343%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-1244%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-1144%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-1044%3%2%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-0944%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-0843%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-0743%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.5%
2026-08-0644%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.7%
2026-08-0546%3%3%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.7%
2026-08-0446%3%1.5%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.7%
2026-08-0346%3%1.5%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.7%
2026-08-0246%3%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.8%
2026-08-0143%3%—0.9%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-3143%3%—0.9%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-3043%3%—0.9%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2943%3%—0.9%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2843%3%—0.9%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2743%3%—0.9%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2643%3%—0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2543%3%—0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-2443%3%—0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.9%
2026-07-2343%3%—0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.9%
2026-07-2243%3%—0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.9%
2026-07-2142%3%—0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.9%
2026-07-2042%3%—0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.9%
2026-07-1940%2%—0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.9%
2026-07-1840%2%—0.9%0.6%0.8%0.8%0.9%
2026-07-1741%2%—0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1641%2%—0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1541%2%—0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1442%3%—0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1342%2%—0.9%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1241%2%—0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1141%2%—0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-1040%2%—0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0941%2%—0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0840%3%—0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.9%
2026-07-0741%3%—0.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.9%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — what are the odds?
As of November 4, 2026, J.D. Vance leads at 31%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — have the odds gone up or down?
Down. Over the 121 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 41% on July 7, 2026 to 31% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 121 tracked days the odds ranged between 31% and 53%. The current reading of 31% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination” for 121 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, J.D. Vance leads the field at 31%. The chance for J.D. Vance has fallen from 41% to 31%, ranging between 31% and 53% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.