Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Politics · tracked since September 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuo Hsi | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Kuo Hsi |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-02 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-31 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-30 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-29 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-28 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-27 | — |
| 2026-10-26 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-25 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-24 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-23 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-22 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | — |
| 2026-10-05 | — |
| 2026-10-04 | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the next Taipei Mayor election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the next Taipei Mayor election — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 11 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on November 3, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the next Taipei Mayor election” for 11 days, since September 21, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.