Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds make the Republicans the most likely outcome at 70%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 15 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 24, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
70%
How the odds have moved
the Republicansthe Democrats
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| the Republicans | 68% | 70% | ▲ 2 |
| the Democrats | 32% | 30% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | the Republicans | the Democrats |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 70% | 30% |
| 2026-11-02 | 68% | 32% |
| 2026-11-01 | — | 26% |
| 2026-10-05 | 86% | — |
| 2026-10-01 | — | 14% |
| 2026-09-27 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-16 | — | 14% |
| 2026-09-15 | 86% | 14% |
| 2026-09-14 | 86% | 14% |
| 2026-09-13 | 86% | 14% |
| 2026-09-12 | 86% | 14% |
| 2026-09-11 | 87% | — |
| 2026-09-10 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-06 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-05 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-03 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-02 | 86% | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 86% | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — | 10% |
| 2026-08-12 | — | 10% |
| 2026-08-11 | — | 10% |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 10% |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 10% |
| 2026-08-07 | — | 10% |
| 2026-07-31 | — | 9% |
| 2026-07-30 | — | 9% |
| 2026-07-29 | — | 10% |
| 2026-07-28 | — | 8% |
| 2026-07-27 | — | 9% |
| 2026-07-24 | — | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the Republicans led at 70%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 19 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 86% on September 1, 2026 to 70% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 16 points.
- Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 19 tracked days the odds ranged between 68% and 87%. The final reading of 70% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026” for 19 days, since July 24, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, the Republicans leads the field at 70%. The final tracked chance for the Republicans has fallen from 86% to 70%, ranging between 68% and 87% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.