Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 13 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 10% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 10% |
| 2026-09-05 | 15% |
| 2026-09-04 | 15% |
| 2026-09-03 | 15% |
| 2026-09-02 | 15% |
| 2026-09-01 | 15% |
| 2026-08-18 | 23% |
| 2026-08-17 | 23% |
| 2026-08-16 | 23% |
| 2026-08-15 | 25% |
| 2026-08-14 | 23% |
| 2026-08-13 | 21% |
| 2026-08-12 | 22% |
| 2026-08-11 | 22% |
| 2026-08-10 | 24% |
| 2026-08-09 | 18% |
| 2026-08-08 | 17% |
| 2026-08-07 | 18% |
| 2026-08-06 | 29% |
| 2026-08-05 | 31% |
| 2026-08-04 | 30% |
| 2026-08-03 | 30% |
| 2026-08-02 | 32% |
| 2026-08-01 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 24 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on August 1, 2026 to 10% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 22 points.
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 24 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 32%. The current reading of 10% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027” for 24 days, since August 1, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 10%, ranging between 10% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.