Final tracked odds
As of August 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 12, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 6% |
| 2026-08-11 | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 5% |
| 2026-08-07 | 6% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 5% |
| 2026-08-04 | 4% |
| 2026-08-03 | 4% |
| 2026-08-02 | 5% |
| 2026-08-01 | 6% |
| 2026-07-31 | 4% |
| 2026-07-30 | 6% |
| 2026-07-29 | 7% |
| 2026-07-27 | 6% |
| 2026-07-22 | 6% |
| 2026-07-21 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 18 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on July 21, 2026 to 6% on August 12, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31” for 18 days, since July 21, 2026. As of August 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 9% to 6%, ranging between 4% and 9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 12, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.