Final tracked odds
As of August 18, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 88%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 5, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 18, 2026
88%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 17 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88% | 88% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 88% |
| 2026-08-17 | 88% |
| 2026-08-16 | 86% |
| 2026-08-15 | 84% |
| 2026-08-14 | 84% |
| 2026-08-13 | 74% |
| 2026-08-12 | 74% |
| 2026-08-11 | 75% |
| 2026-08-10 | 74% |
| 2026-08-09 | 74% |
| 2026-08-08 | 74% |
| 2026-08-07 | 75% |
| 2026-08-06 | 49% |
| 2026-08-05 | 48% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 18, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 88%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 14 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 48% on August 5, 2026 to 88% on August 18, 2026 — a change of 40 points.
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 14 tracked days the odds ranged between 48% and 88%. The final reading of 88% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026” for 14 days, since August 5, 2026. As of August 18, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 88%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 48% to 88%, ranging between 48% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.