Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 4% |
| 2026-09-05 | 4% |
| 2026-09-04 | 4% |
| 2026-09-03 | 4% |
| 2026-09-02 | 4% |
| 2026-09-01 | 4% |
| 2026-08-31 | 4% |
| 2026-08-30 | 4% |
| 2026-08-29 | 4% |
| 2026-08-28 | 4% |
| 2026-08-27 | 4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 4% |
| 2026-08-25 | 4% |
| 2026-08-24 | 4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 4% |
| 2026-08-21 | 4% |
| 2026-08-20 | 4% |
| 2026-08-19 | 4% |
| 2026-08-18 | 4% |
| 2026-08-17 | 4% |
| 2026-08-16 | 4% |
| 2026-08-15 | 4% |
| 2026-08-14 | 4% |
| 2026-08-13 | 4% |
| 2026-08-12 | 4% |
| 2026-08-11 | 4% |
| 2026-08-10 | 4% |
| 2026-08-09 | 4% |
| 2026-08-08 | 4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 4% |
| 2026-08-06 | 4% |
| 2026-08-05 | 4% |
| 2026-08-04 | 4% |
| 2026-08-03 | 4% |
| 2026-08-02 | 4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 4% |
| 2026-07-31 | 4% |
| 2026-07-30 | 4% |
| 2026-07-29 | 4% |
| 2026-07-28 | 4% |
| 2026-07-27 | 4% |
| 2026-07-26 | 4% |
| 2026-07-25 | 4% |
| 2026-07-24 | 4% |
| 2026-07-23 | 4% |
| 2026-07-22 | 4% |
| 2026-07-21 | 4% |
| 2026-07-20 | 4% |
| 2026-07-19 | 4% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-12 | 4% |
| 2026-07-11 | 4% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
| 2026-07-08 | 4% |
| 2026-07-07 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 62 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 4% on September 6, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026” for 62 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has held near 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.