Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 2% |
| 2026-11-03 | 2% |
| 2026-11-02 | 2% |
| 2026-11-01 | 2% |
| 2026-10-31 | 2% |
| 2026-10-30 | 2% |
| 2026-10-29 | 2% |
| 2026-10-28 | 2% |
| 2026-10-27 | 2% |
| 2026-10-26 | 2% |
| 2026-10-25 | 2% |
| 2026-10-24 | 2% |
| 2026-10-23 | 2% |
| 2026-10-22 | 2% |
| 2026-10-21 | 2% |
| 2026-10-20 | 2% |
| 2026-10-19 | 2% |
| 2026-10-18 | 2% |
| 2026-10-17 | 2% |
| 2026-10-16 | 2% |
| 2026-10-15 | 2% |
| 2026-10-14 | 2% |
| 2026-10-13 | 2% |
| 2026-10-12 | 2% |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026-10-09 | 2% |
| 2026-10-08 | 2% |
| 2026-10-07 | 2% |
| 2026-10-06 | 2% |
| 2026-10-05 | 2% |
| 2026-10-04 | 2% |
| 2026-10-03 | 2% |
| 2026-10-02 | 2% |
| 2026-10-01 | 3% |
| 2026-09-30 | 3% |
| 2026-09-29 | 3% |
| 2026-09-28 | 3% |
| 2026-09-27 | 4% |
| 2026-09-26 | 4% |
| 2026-09-25 | 4% |
| 2026-09-24 | 4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 4% |
| 2026-09-22 | 4% |
| 2026-09-21 | 4% |
| 2026-09-20 | 4% |
| 2026-09-19 | 4% |
| 2026-09-18 | 4% |
| 2026-09-17 | 4% |
| 2026-09-16 | 4% |
| 2026-09-15 | 4% |
| 2026-09-14 | 4% |
| 2026-09-13 | 4% |
| 2026-09-12 | 4% |
| 2026-09-11 | 4% |
| 2026-09-10 | 4% |
| 2026-09-09 | 4% |
| 2026-09-08 | 4% |
| 2026-09-07 | 4% |
| 2026-09-06 | 4% |
| 2026-09-05 | 4% |
| 2026-09-04 | 4% |
| 2026-09-03 | 4% |
| 2026-09-02 | 4% |
| 2026-09-01 | 4% |
| 2026-08-31 | 4% |
| 2026-08-30 | 4% |
| 2026-08-29 | 4% |
| 2026-08-28 | 4% |
| 2026-08-27 | 4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 4% |
| 2026-08-25 | 4% |
| 2026-08-24 | 4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 4% |
| 2026-08-21 | 4% |
| 2026-08-20 | 4% |
| 2026-08-19 | 4% |
| 2026-08-18 | 4% |
| 2026-08-17 | 4% |
| 2026-08-16 | 4% |
| 2026-08-15 | 4% |
| 2026-08-14 | 4% |
| 2026-08-13 | 4% |
| 2026-08-12 | 4% |
| 2026-08-11 | 4% |
| 2026-08-10 | 4% |
| 2026-08-09 | 4% |
| 2026-08-08 | 4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 4% |
| 2026-08-06 | 4% |
| 2026-08-05 | 4% |
| 2026-08-04 | 4% |
| 2026-08-03 | 4% |
| 2026-08-02 | 4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 4% |
| 2026-07-31 | 4% |
| 2026-07-30 | 4% |
| 2026-07-29 | 4% |
| 2026-07-28 | 4% |
| 2026-07-27 | 4% |
| 2026-07-26 | 4% |
| 2026-07-25 | 4% |
| 2026-07-24 | 4% |
| 2026-07-23 | 4% |
| 2026-07-22 | 4% |
| 2026-07-21 | 4% |
| 2026-07-20 | 4% |
| 2026-07-19 | 4% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 4% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-12 | 4% |
| 2026-07-11 | 4% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
| 2026-07-08 | 4% |
| 2026-07-07 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 121 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on July 7, 2026 to 2% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026” for 121 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.