The Morning Line

Will Count Binface Party win the 2026 Clacton by-election?

Politics · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 3, 2026

2%

Final tracked odds

As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 2% on August 3, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 8Jul 14Jul 21Jul 28Aug 3Count Binface Party — Jul 8: 5%Count Binface Party — Jul 9: 8%Count Binface Party — Jul 10: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 11: 8%Count Binface Party — Jul 12: 8%Count Binface Party — Jul 13: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 14: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 15: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 16: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 17: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 18: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 19: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 20: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 21: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 22: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 23: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 24: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 25: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 26: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 27: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 28: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 29: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 30: 2%Count Binface Party — Jul 31: 2%Count Binface Party — Aug 1: 2%Count Binface Party — Aug 2: 2%Count Binface Party — Aug 3: 2%2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 2TodayMove
Count Binface Party2%2%▼ 1
Full history table
DateCount Binface Party
2026-08-032%
2026-08-022%
2026-08-012%
2026-07-312%
2026-07-302%
2026-07-294%
2026-07-284%
2026-07-274%
2026-07-264%
2026-07-254%
2026-07-244%
2026-07-234%
2026-07-224%
2026-07-216%
2026-07-206%
2026-07-196%
2026-07-186%
2026-07-176%
2026-07-164%
2026-07-154%
2026-07-146%
2026-07-136%
2026-07-128%
2026-07-118%
2026-07-106%
2026-07-098%
2026-07-085%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Count Binface Party win the 2026 Clacton by-election — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Count Binface Party win the 2026 Clacton by-election — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 27 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 5% on July 8, 2026 to 2% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
Will Count Binface Party win the 2026 Clacton by-election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 27 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 8%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Count Binface Party win the 2026 Clacton by-election” for 27 days, since July 8, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 5% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.