Final tracked odds
As of October 18, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 40%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 18, 2026
40%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 17 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 40% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 40% |
| 2026-10-17 | 40% |
| 2026-10-14 | 40% |
| 2026-10-13 | 40% |
| 2026-10-12 | 42% |
| 2026-10-11 | 42% |
| 2026-10-10 | 42% |
| 2026-10-09 | 42% |
| 2026-10-08 | 42% |
| 2026-10-07 | 42% |
| 2026-10-06 | 42% |
| 2026-09-12 | 10% |
| 2026-09-08 | 8% |
| 2026-09-07 | 8% |
| 2026-09-06 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 18, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 40%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 9% on September 6, 2026 to 40% on October 18, 2026 — a change of 31 points.
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 42%. The final reading of 40% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026” for 15 days, since September 6, 2026. As of October 18, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 40%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 9% to 40%, ranging between 8% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.