Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on July 16, 2026 to 10% on August 10, 2026 — a change of 54 points.

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 86%. The final reading of 10% sits inside that range.

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 10, 2026

10%

Final tracked odds

As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.

▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 77 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 10% on August 10, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 9	Today	Move
Before Aug 16, 2026	8%	10%	▲ 2

Full history table

Date	Before Aug 16, 2026
2026-08-10	10%
2026-08-09	8%
2026-08-07	4%
2026-08-04	54%
2026-08-03	86%
2026-08-02	70%
2026-08-01	70%
2026-07-31	64%
2026-07-30	60%
2026-07-29	52%
2026-07-28	46%
2026-07-27	50%
2026-07-26	58%
2026-07-25	63%
2026-07-24	65%
2026-07-23	67%
2026-07-22	64%
2026-07-21	48%
2026-07-20	50%
2026-07-19	49%
2026-07-18	57%
2026-07-17	48%
2026-07-16	64%
2026-07-15 *	62%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on July 16, 2026 to 10% on August 10, 2026 — a change of 54 points.
Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 86%. The final reading of 10% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026” for 23 days, since July 16, 2026. As of August 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 64% to 10%, ranging between 4% and 86% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.