Final tracked odds
As of August 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 64%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 2, 2026
64%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66% | 64% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 64% |
| 2026-08-01 | 66% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 66% on August 1, 2026 to 64% on August 2, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31” for 2 days, since August 1, 2026. As of August 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 64%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 66% to 64%, ranging between 64% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.