Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 19%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on October 8, 2026 to 19% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 17 points.

Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 19%. The final reading of 19% sits at the top of that range.

Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Culture · tracked since October 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 12, 2026

19%

Final tracked odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 19%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 16% on October 12, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 11	Today	Move
Housewife by Tate McRae	19%	19%	—

Full history table

Date	Housewife by Tate McRae
2026-10-12	19%
2026-10-11	19%
2026-10-09	6%
2026-10-08	2%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 19%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on October 8, 2026 to 19% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 17 points.
Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 19%. The final reading of 19% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Housewife by Tate McRae debut #1 on the Billboard Hot 100” for 4 days, since October 8, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 19%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 19%, ranging between 2% and 19% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 12, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.