Final tracked odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 28%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards?
Culture · tracked since October 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 12, 2026
28%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Bola Negra | 30% | 28% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | La Bola Negra |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 28% |
| 2026-10-11 | 30% |
| 2026-10-09 | 34% |
| 2026-10-08 | 19% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 19% on October 8, 2026 to 28% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
- Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 19% and 34%. The final reading of 28% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards” for 4 days, since October 8, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 19% to 28%, ranging between 19% and 34% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 12, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.