Final tracked odds
As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Ilhan Omar's U.S. citizenship be revoked before Jan 1, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since October 15, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 19, 2026
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 10% |
| 2026-10-18 | 10% |
| 2026-10-17 | 10% |
| 2026-10-16 | 10% |
| 2026-10-15 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Ilhan Omar's U.S. citizenship be revoked before Jan 1, 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Ilhan Omar's U.S. citizenship be revoked before Jan 1, 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on October 15, 2026 to 10% on October 19, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Ilhan Omar's U.S. citizenship be revoked before Jan 1, 2027” for 5 days, since October 15, 2026. As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 10%, ranging between 10% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.