Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 7%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
Economy · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
7%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 25 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 7% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 7% |
| 2026-10-25 | 8% |
| 2026-09-27 | 8% |
| 2026-09-26 | 8% |
| 2026-09-25 | 8% |
| 2026-09-24 | 8% |
| 2026-09-23 | 8% |
| 2026-09-22 | 8% |
| 2026-09-21 | 8% |
| 2026-09-20 | 8% |
| 2026-09-19 | 8% |
| 2026-09-18 | 8% |
| 2026-09-17 | 8% |
| 2026-09-16 | 8% |
| 2026-09-15 | 10% |
| 2026-09-14 | 8% |
| 2026-09-13 | 8% |
| 2026-09-12 | 8% |
| 2026-09-11 | 9% |
| 2026-09-10 | 8% |
| 2026-09-09 | 8% |
| 2026-09-08 | 8% |
| 2026-09-07 | 8% |
| 2026-09-06 | 8% |
| 2026-09-05 | 8% |
| 2026-09-04 | 8% |
| 2026-09-03 | 8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 7% |
| 2026-09-01 | 7% |
| 2026-08-29 | 7% |
| 2026-08-28 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 8% |
| 2026-08-26 | 6% |
| 2026-08-25 | 6% |
| 2026-08-24 | 6% |
| 2026-08-23 | 8% |
| 2026-08-22 | 8% |
| 2026-08-21 | 8% |
| 2026-08-20 | 8% |
| 2026-08-19 | 8% |
| 2026-08-18 | 7% |
| 2026-08-17 | 8% |
| 2026-08-16 | 8% |
| 2026-08-15 | 8% |
| 2026-08-14 | 8% |
| 2026-08-13 | 8% |
| 2026-08-12 | 11% |
| 2026-08-11 | 12% |
| 2026-08-10 | 12% |
| 2026-08-09 | 12% |
| 2026-07-31 | 13% |
| 2026-07-30 | 12% |
| 2026-07-29 | 14% |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% |
| 2026-07-27 | 16% |
| 2026-07-26 | 16% |
| 2026-07-25 | 15% |
| 2026-07-24 | 15% |
| 2026-07-23 | 15% |
| 2026-07-22 | 14% |
| 2026-07-21 | 14% |
| 2026-07-20 | 14% |
| 2026-07-16 | 12% |
| 2026-07-15 | 13% |
| 2026-07-14 | 16% |
| 2026-07-13 | 14% |
| 2026-07-12 | 13% |
| 2026-07-11 | 14% |
| 2026-07-10 | 14% |
| 2026-07-09 | 14% |
| 2026-07-08 | 12% |
| 2026-07-07 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 72 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 7, 2026 to 7% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 72 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 16%. The final reading of 7% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026” for 72 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 7%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 7%, ranging between 6% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.