Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 56%.
▲ 8 since the previous update. ▲ 25 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Economy · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
56%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48% | 56% | ▲ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 56% |
| 2026-08-30 | 48% |
| 2026-08-29 | 44% |
| 2026-08-28 | 52% |
| 2026-08-27 | 32% |
| 2026-08-26 | 35% |
| 2026-08-25 | 34% |
| 2026-08-24 | 31% |
| 2026-08-23 | 32% |
| 2026-08-22 | 34% |
| 2026-08-21 | 30% |
| 2026-08-20 | 26% |
| 2026-08-19 | 28% |
| 2026-08-17 | 24% |
| 2026-08-16 | 23% |
| 2026-08-15 | 23% |
| 2026-08-14 | 24% |
| 2026-08-13 | 27% |
| 2026-08-12 | 34% |
| 2026-08-11 | 44% |
| 2026-08-10 | 34% |
| 2026-08-09 | 36% |
| 2026-08-03 | 58% |
| 2026-07-31 | 56% |
| 2026-07-30 | 52% |
| 2026-07-29 | 68% |
| 2026-07-12 | 46% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 56%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 27 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 46% on July 12, 2026 to 56% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 27 tracked days the odds ranged between 23% and 68%. The final reading of 56% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)” for 27 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 56%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 46% to 56%, ranging between 23% and 68% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.