Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 12% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 12% |
| 2026-08-30 | 9% |
| 2026-08-29 | 9% |
| 2026-07-31 | 17% |
| 2026-07-30 | 18% |
| 2026-07-29 | 15% |
| 2026-07-28 | 16% |
| 2026-07-27 | 16% |
| 2026-07-26 | 16% |
| 2026-07-25 | 20% |
| 2026-07-24 | 20% |
| 2026-07-23 | 18% |
| 2026-07-22 | 17% |
| 2026-07-21 | 15% |
| 2026-07-20 | 15% |
| 2026-07-16 | 14% |
| 2026-07-15 | 17% |
| 2026-07-13 | 13% |
| 2026-07-12 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 19 tracked days the odds held near 12%, ending at 12% on August 31, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 19 tracked days the odds ranged between 9% and 20%. The final reading of 12% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027” for 19 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 12%, ranging between 9% and 20% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.