Final tracked odds
As of September 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 5, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 8% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 8% |
| 2026-09-01 | 11% |
| 2026-08-31 | 12% |
| 2026-08-30 | 12% |
| 2026-08-29 | 12% |
| 2026-08-28 | 12% |
| 2026-08-27 | 11% |
| 2026-08-26 | 11% |
| 2026-08-25 | 11% |
| 2026-08-24 | 11% |
| 2026-08-23 | 11% |
| 2026-08-22 | 10% |
| 2026-08-21 | 10% |
| 2026-08-20 | 10% |
| 2026-08-19 | 10% |
| 2026-08-18 | 12% |
| 2026-08-17 | 12% |
| 2026-08-16 | 12% |
| 2026-08-15 | 10% |
| 2026-08-14 | 14% |
| 2026-08-13 | 14% |
| 2026-08-12 | 14% |
| 2026-08-11 | 16% |
| 2026-08-10 | 16% |
| 2026-08-09 | 20% |
| 2026-08-06 | 18% |
| 2026-08-05 | 19% |
| 2026-07-09 | 42% |
| 2026-07-08 | 38% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 29 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on July 8, 2026 to 8% on September 5, 2026 — a change of 30 points.
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 29 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 42%. The final reading of 8% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31” for 29 days, since July 8, 2026. As of September 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 38% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.