Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.

▼ 13 since the previous update. ▼ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 4% on October 5, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 29	Today	Move
Yes	17%	4%	▼ 13

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-05	4%
2026-09-29	17%
2026-09-28	23%
2026-09-23	62%
2026-09-22	23%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 23% on September 22, 2026 to 4% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 19 points.
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 62%. The final reading of 4% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026” for 5 days, since September 22, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 23% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 62% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.