The Morning Line

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

19%

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 19%.

▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 29Sep 3Sep 24Nov 4Yes — Jul 7: 34%Yes — Nov 4: 19%19%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeNov 3TodayMove
Yes18%19%▲ 2
Full history table
DateYes
2026-11-0419%
2026-11-0318%
2026-11-0216%
2026-10-3120%
2026-10-3018%
2026-10-2918%
2026-10-2814%
2026-10-2715%
2026-10-2610%
2026-10-2518%
2026-10-2419%
2026-10-2318%
2026-10-2218%
2026-10-2117%
2026-10-0420%
2026-09-3016%
2026-09-2918%
2026-09-2816%
2026-09-2716%
2026-09-2616%
2026-09-2517%
2026-09-2418%
2026-09-2316%
2026-09-2218%
2026-09-2118%
2026-09-2020%
2026-09-1921%
2026-09-1820%
2026-09-1723%
2026-09-1623%
2026-09-1521%
2026-09-1422%
2026-09-1324%
2026-09-1224%
2026-09-1124%
2026-09-1024%
2026-09-0924%
2026-09-0824%
2026-09-0723%
2026-09-0623%
2026-09-0524%
2026-09-0423%
2026-09-0321%
2026-09-0220%
2026-09-0124%
2026-08-2426%
2026-08-2326%
2026-08-2230%
2026-08-2126%
2026-08-2024%
2026-08-1924%
2026-08-1827%
2026-08-1725%
2026-08-1624%
2026-08-1528%
2026-08-1428%
2026-08-1330%
2026-08-1231%
2026-08-1126%
2026-08-1026%
2026-08-0924%
2026-07-3134%
2026-07-3034%
2026-07-2932%
2026-07-2831%
2026-07-2731%
2026-07-2634%
2026-07-2531%
2026-07-2437%
2026-07-2335%
2026-07-2234%
2026-07-2136%
2026-07-1940%
2026-07-1844%
2026-07-1746%
2026-07-1646%
2026-07-1548%
2026-07-1448%
2026-07-1348%
2026-07-1255%
2026-07-1149%
2026-07-1036%
2026-07-0936%
2026-07-0836%
2026-07-0734%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — what are the odds?
As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 19%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
Down. Over the 85 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 34% on July 7, 2026 to 19% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 15 points.
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 85 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 55%. The current reading of 19% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027” for 85 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 19%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 34% to 19%, ranging between 10% and 55% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.