Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 23%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
23%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 23% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 23% |
| 2026-09-05 | 24% |
| 2026-09-04 | 23% |
| 2026-09-03 | 21% |
| 2026-09-02 | 20% |
| 2026-09-01 | 24% |
| 2026-08-24 | 26% |
| 2026-08-23 | 26% |
| 2026-08-22 | 30% |
| 2026-08-21 | 26% |
| 2026-08-20 | 24% |
| 2026-08-19 | 24% |
| 2026-08-18 | 27% |
| 2026-08-17 | 25% |
| 2026-08-16 | 24% |
| 2026-08-15 | 28% |
| 2026-08-14 | 28% |
| 2026-08-13 | 30% |
| 2026-08-12 | 31% |
| 2026-08-11 | 26% |
| 2026-08-10 | 26% |
| 2026-08-09 | 24% |
| 2026-07-31 | 34% |
| 2026-07-30 | 34% |
| 2026-07-29 | 32% |
| 2026-07-28 | 31% |
| 2026-07-27 | 31% |
| 2026-07-26 | 34% |
| 2026-07-25 | 31% |
| 2026-07-24 | 37% |
| 2026-07-23 | 35% |
| 2026-07-22 | 34% |
| 2026-07-21 | 36% |
| 2026-07-19 | 40% |
| 2026-07-18 | 44% |
| 2026-07-17 | 46% |
| 2026-07-16 | 46% |
| 2026-07-15 | 48% |
| 2026-07-14 | 48% |
| 2026-07-13 | 48% |
| 2026-07-12 | 55% |
| 2026-07-11 | 49% |
| 2026-07-10 | 36% |
| 2026-07-09 | 36% |
| 2026-07-08 | 36% |
| 2026-07-07 | 34% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 23%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 46 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 34% on July 7, 2026 to 23% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 46 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 55%. The current reading of 23% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027” for 46 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 23%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 34% to 23%, ranging between 20% and 55% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.