Final tracked odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Katherine Clark win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
Politics · tracked since August 25, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 27, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katherine Clark | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Katherine Clark |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 2% |
| 2026-08-26 | 2% |
| 2026-08-25 | 2% |
| 2026-08-24 * | 1.0% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Katherine Clark win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Katherine Clark win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress” for 3 days, since August 25, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.