Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 4% |
| 2026-09-30 | 4% |
| 2026-09-29 | 4% |
| 2026-09-28 | 4% |
| 2026-09-25 | 4% |
| 2026-09-24 | 4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 5% |
| 2026-09-22 | 4% |
| 2026-09-21 | 5% |
| 2026-07-19 | 5% |
| 2026-07-18 | 5% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 14 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 5% on November 3, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026” for 14 days, since July 14, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 4% to 5% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.