Final tracked odds
As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-21 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-20 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-19 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-18 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-17 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-16 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-15 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-14 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-13 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-12 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-11 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-10 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-09 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-08 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-05 | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-04 | 0.1% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 19 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on November 1, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026” for 19 days, since October 4, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.