Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 27 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 2, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
98%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 16, 2026 | 98% | 98% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Before Sep 16, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 98% |
| 2026-09-04 | 98% |
| 2026-09-02 | 72% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on September 2, 2026 to 98% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 26 points.
- Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 72% and 98%. The current reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026” for 3 days, since September 2, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The chance for a yes has risen from 72% to 98%, ranging between 72% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.