Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.8%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
0.8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.8% | 0.8% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-30 | 0.8% |
| 2026-08-29 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | 1.4% |
| 2026-08-27 | 2% |
| 2026-08-26 | 3% |
| 2026-08-23 | 3% |
| 2026-08-21 | 3% |
| 2026-08-12 | 9% |
| 2026-08-11 | 8% |
| 2026-07-31 | 8% |
| 2026-07-30 | 11% |
| 2026-07-29 | 12% |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% |
| 2026-07-26 | 12% |
| 2026-07-25 | 12% |
| 2026-07-24 | 16% |
| 2026-07-23 | 18% |
| 2026-07-22 | 12% |
| 2026-07-21 | 12% |
| 2026-07-20 | 12% |
| 2026-07-19 | 12% |
| 2026-07-18 | 11% |
| 2026-07-17 | 11% |
| 2026-07-16 | 10% |
| 2026-07-15 | 12% |
| 2026-07-14 | 10% |
| 2026-07-13 | 9% |
| 2026-07-12 | 10% |
| 2026-07-11 | 10% |
| 2026-07-10 | 8% |
| 2026-07-09 | 10% |
| 2026-07-08 | 11% |
| 2026-07-07 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 34 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 7, 2026 to 0.8% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 34 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.8% and 18%. The final reading of 0.8% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 34 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 10% to 0.8%, ranging between 0.8% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.