Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 23, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 5% |
| 2026-11-02 | 4% |
| 2026-10-31 | 4% |
| 2026-10-30 | 5% |
| 2026-10-29 | 5% |
| 2026-10-28 | 5% |
| 2026-10-27 | 7% |
| 2026-10-26 | 7% |
| 2026-10-25 | 7% |
| 2026-10-24 | 7% |
| 2026-10-23 | 7% |
| 2026-10-22 | 8% |
| 2026-10-21 | 5% |
| 2026-10-20 | 8% |
| 2026-10-19 | 4% |
| 2026-10-18 | 4% |
| 2026-10-17 | 4% |
| 2026-10-16 | 4% |
| 2026-10-14 | 4% |
| 2026-10-04 | 4% |
| 2026-10-03 | 3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 5% |
| 2026-10-01 | 5% |
| 2026-09-30 | 3% |
| 2026-09-29 | 2% |
| 2026-09-28 | 2% |
| 2026-09-26 | 2% |
| 2026-09-25 | 2% |
| 2026-09-24 | 4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 30 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 5% on November 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 30 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 8%. The current reading of 5% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026” for 30 days, since September 23, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The chance for a yes has risen from 4% to 5%, ranging between 2% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.