Final tracked odds
As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
Everything Else · tracked since September 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 4, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 4% |
| 2026-09-03 | 4% |
| 2026-09-02 | 3% |
| 2026-09-01 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship” for 4 days, since September 1, 2026. As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.