Final tracked odds
As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 40%.
▼ 37 since the previous update. ▼ 38 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the CIF Rotterdam 88.5% APT price (SMM-WU-APT-003) be above $2,250/MTU on Dec 17, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 19, 2026
40%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2,250/MTU | 78% | 40% | ▼ 37 |
Full history table
| Date | Above $2,250/MTU |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 40% |
| 2026-10-18 | 78% |
| 2026-10-17 | 78% |
| 2026-10-16 | 78% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the CIF Rotterdam 88.5% APT price (SMM-WU-APT-003) be above $2,250/MTU on Dec 17, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 40%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the CIF Rotterdam 88.5% APT price (SMM-WU-APT-003) be above $2,250/MTU on Dec 17, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 78% on October 16, 2026 to 40% on October 19, 2026 — a change of 38 points.
- Will the CIF Rotterdam 88.5% APT price (SMM-WU-APT-003) be above $2,250/MTU on Dec 17, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 40% and 78%. The final reading of 40% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the CIF Rotterdam 88.5% APT price (SMM-WU-APT-003) be above $2,250/MTU on Dec 17, 2026” for 4 days, since October 16, 2026. As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 40%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 78% to 40%, ranging between 40% and 78% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.