Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 3% |
| 2026-08-30 | 4% |
| 2026-08-29 | 3% |
| 2026-08-28 | 4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 6% |
| 2026-07-20 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 20, 2026 to 3% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 10%. The final reading of 3% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting” for 6 days, since July 20, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 10% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.