Final tracked odds
As of October 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since August 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 29, 2026
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 2% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 2% |
| 2026-09-30 | 3% |
| 2026-09-16 | 2% |
| 2026-09-15 | 2% |
| 2026-08-31 | 2% |
| 2026-08-30 | 4% |
| 2026-08-29 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | 1.4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 8 tracked days the odds held near 1.4%, ending at 2% on October 29, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting” for 8 days, since August 28, 2026. As of October 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 1.4%, ranging between 1.1% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 29, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.