Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 50%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Economy · tracked since July 9, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
50%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 50% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 50% |
| 2026-09-05 | 50% |
| 2026-09-04 | 48% |
| 2026-09-03 | 58% |
| 2026-09-02 | 42% |
| 2026-09-01 | 40% |
| 2026-08-28 | 48% |
| 2026-08-26 | 66% |
| 2026-08-24 | 69% |
| 2026-08-22 | 68% |
| 2026-08-21 | 72% |
| 2026-08-20 | 74% |
| 2026-08-19 | 72% |
| 2026-08-18 | 72% |
| 2026-08-17 | 76% |
| 2026-08-16 | 76% |
| 2026-08-15 | 76% |
| 2026-08-14 | 76% |
| 2026-08-13 | 72% |
| 2026-08-12 | 66% |
| 2026-08-11 | 57% |
| 2026-08-10 | 64% |
| 2026-08-09 | 64% |
| 2026-08-08 | 64% |
| 2026-08-07 | 65% |
| 2026-08-06 | 54% |
| 2026-08-05 | 51% |
| 2026-08-04 | 49% |
| 2026-08-03 | 42% |
| 2026-08-02 | 40% |
| 2026-08-01 | 38% |
| 2026-07-12 | 55% |
| 2026-07-11 | 55% |
| 2026-07-10 | 55% |
| 2026-07-09 | 55% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 50%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 35 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 55% on July 9, 2026 to 50% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 35 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 76%. The current reading of 50% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)” for 35 days, since July 9, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 50%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 55% to 50%, ranging between 38% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.