Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 4% |
| 2026-11-03 | 4% |
| 2026-11-02 | 4% |
| 2026-11-01 | 4% |
| 2026-10-31 | 6% |
| 2026-10-30 | 6% |
| 2026-10-29 | 6% |
| 2026-10-28 | 6% |
| 2026-10-27 | 6% |
| 2026-10-26 | 6% |
| 2026-10-25 | 6% |
| 2026-10-24 | 6% |
| 2026-10-23 | 6% |
| 2026-10-22 | 6% |
| 2026-10-21 | 4% |
| 2026-10-20 | 4% |
| 2026-10-19 | 4% |
| 2026-10-18 | 4% |
| 2026-10-17 | 6% |
| 2026-10-16 | 6% |
| 2026-10-15 | 6% |
| 2026-10-14 | 6% |
| 2026-10-13 | 6% |
| 2026-10-12 | 6% |
| 2026-10-11 | 6% |
| 2026-10-10 | 4% |
| 2026-10-09 | 4% |
| 2026-10-08 | 6% |
| 2026-10-07 | 6% |
| 2026-10-06 | 6% |
| 2026-10-05 | 6% |
| 2026-10-04 | 6% |
| 2026-10-03 | 6% |
| 2026-10-02 | 6% |
| 2026-10-01 | 6% |
| 2026-09-30 | 6% |
| 2026-09-29 | 6% |
| 2026-09-28 | 6% |
| 2026-09-27 | 6% |
| 2026-09-26 | 6% |
| 2026-09-25 | 6% |
| 2026-09-24 | 6% |
| 2026-09-23 | 6% |
| 2026-09-22 | 6% |
| 2026-09-21 | 6% |
| 2026-09-20 | 6% |
| 2026-09-19 | 6% |
| 2026-09-18 | 6% |
| 2026-09-17 | 6% |
| 2026-09-16 | 8% |
| 2026-09-15 | 8% |
| 2026-09-14 | 8% |
| 2026-09-13 | 8% |
| 2026-09-12 | 8% |
| 2026-09-11 | 8% |
| 2026-09-10 | 6% |
| 2026-09-09 | 6% |
| 2026-09-08 | 6% |
| 2026-09-07 | 6% |
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 6% |
| 2026-09-04 | 8% |
| 2026-09-03 | 6% |
| 2026-09-02 | 6% |
| 2026-09-01 | 6% |
| 2026-08-31 | 8% |
| 2026-08-30 | 6% |
| 2026-08-29 | 6% |
| 2026-08-28 | 6% |
| 2026-08-27 | 6% |
| 2026-08-26 | 6% |
| 2026-08-25 | 8% |
| 2026-08-24 | 6% |
| 2026-08-23 | 6% |
| 2026-08-22 | 6% |
| 2026-08-21 | 6% |
| 2026-08-20 | 6% |
| 2026-08-19 | 6% |
| 2026-08-18 | 6% |
| 2026-08-17 | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 6% |
| 2026-08-15 | 6% |
| 2026-08-14 | 6% |
| 2026-08-13 | 6% |
| 2026-08-12 | 6% |
| 2026-08-11 | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 6% |
| 2026-08-07 | 6% |
| 2026-08-06 | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 6% |
| 2026-08-04 | 6% |
| 2026-08-03 | 8% |
| 2026-08-02 | 8% |
| 2026-08-01 | 8% |
| 2026-07-31 | 8% |
| 2026-07-30 | 8% |
| 2026-07-29 | 10% |
| 2026-07-28 | 8% |
| 2026-07-27 | 8% |
| 2026-07-26 | 8% |
| 2026-07-25 | 10% |
| 2026-07-24 | 10% |
| 2026-07-23 | 10% |
| 2026-07-22 | 10% |
| 2026-07-21 | 10% |
| 2026-07-20 | 10% |
| 2026-07-19 | 10% |
| 2026-07-18 | 10% |
| 2026-07-17 | 10% |
| 2026-07-16 | 8% |
| 2026-07-15 | 10% |
| 2026-07-14 | 10% |
| 2026-07-13 | 8% |
| 2026-07-12 | 8% |
| 2026-07-11 | 8% |
| 2026-07-10 | 8% |
| 2026-07-09 | 9% |
| 2026-07-08 | 8% |
| 2026-07-07 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 121 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 7, 2026 to 4% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 121 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 10%. The current reading of 4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027” for 121 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.