Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9%?

Politics · tracked since August 18, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9% — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 22%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9% — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 61% on August 18, 2026 to 22% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 39 points.

Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9% — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 61%. The final reading of 22% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 9%” for 5 days, since August 18, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 22%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 61% to 22%, ranging between 22% and 61% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

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