Final tracked odds
As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 46%.
▲ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points?
Politics · tracked since October 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 19, 2026
46%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico, 2+ pts | 40% | 46% | ▲ 6 |
Full history table
| Date | James Talarico, 2+ pts |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 46% |
| 2026-10-14 | 40% |
| 2026-10-13 | 48% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 46%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 48% on October 13, 2026 to 46% on October 19, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 40% and 48%. The final reading of 46% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points” for 3 days, since October 13, 2026. As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 46%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 48% to 46%, ranging between 40% and 48% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.