Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 50%.
▼ 9 since the previous update. ▲ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points?
Politics · tracked since November 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
50%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| El-Sayed, 3.5+ pts | 60% | 50% | ▼ 9 |
Full history table
| Date | El-Sayed, 3.5+ pts |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 50% |
| 2026-11-02 | 60% |
| 2026-11-01 | 37% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 50%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 37% on November 1, 2026 to 50% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 13 points.
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 37% and 60%. The final reading of 50% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3.5 percentage points” for 3 days, since November 1, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 50%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 37% to 50%, ranging between 37% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.