Politics · tracked since October 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 26, 2026
Final tracked odds
▼ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 9% on October 26, 2026. It didn't happen.
| Outcome | Oct 25 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton, 6+ pts | 12% | 11% | ▼ 1 |
| Date | Ken Paxton, 6+ pts |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 11% |
| 2026-10-25 | 12% |
| 2026-10-24 | 10% |
| 2026-10-23 | 11% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 6 percentage points” for 4 days, since October 23, 2026. As of October 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 11%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 11% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.