Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026

98%

Final tracked odds

As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 98% on August 24, 2026. Above 200k won.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 23	Today	Move
Above 200k	98%	98%	▲ 1

Full history table

Date	Above 200k
2026-08-24	98%
2026-08-23	98%
2026-08-22	96%
2026-08-21	98%
2026-08-20	89%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 89% on August 20, 2026 to 98% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 89% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000” for 5 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 89% to 98%, ranging between 89% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.