Final tracked odds
As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?
Everything Else · tracked since September 28, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 31, 2026
0.2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.5% | 0.2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | 0.2% |
| 2026-10-30 | 0.5% |
| 2026-10-29 | 0.2% |
| 2026-10-28 | 0.7% |
| 2026-10-27 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | 2% |
| 2026-10-25 | 2% |
| 2026-10-24 | 2% |
| 2026-10-23 | 2% |
| 2026-10-22 | 2% |
| 2026-10-21 | 2% |
| 2026-10-20 | 2% |
| 2026-10-19 | 2% |
| 2026-10-18 | 2% |
| 2026-10-17 | 2% |
| 2026-10-16 | 2% |
| 2026-10-15 | 2% |
| 2026-10-14 | 2% |
| 2026-10-13 | 2% |
| 2026-10-12 | 2% |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026-10-09 | 3% |
| 2026-10-08 | 2% |
| 2026-10-07 | 3% |
| 2026-10-06 | 3% |
| 2026-10-05 | 2% |
| 2026-10-03 | 3% |
| 2026-09-29 | 12% |
| 2026-09-28 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 30 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on September 28, 2026 to 0.2% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 30 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.2% and 12%. The final reading of 0.2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31” for 30 days, since September 28, 2026. As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 0.2%, ranging between 0.2% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.