Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 34%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 14, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
34%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | 34% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 34% |
| 2026-11-02 | 34% |
| 2026-10-31 | 35% |
| 2026-10-30 | 40% |
| 2026-10-29 | 42% |
| 2026-10-28 | 39% |
| 2026-10-27 | 40% |
| 2026-10-26 | 37% |
| 2026-10-25 | 40% |
| 2026-10-24 | 30% |
| 2026-10-23 | 29% |
| 2026-10-22 | 28% |
| 2026-10-21 | 18% |
| 2026-10-20 | 18% |
| 2026-10-19 | 18% |
| 2026-10-18 | 18% |
| 2026-10-17 | 18% |
| 2026-10-04 | 18% |
| 2026-10-03 | 20% |
| 2026-09-30 | 20% |
| 2026-09-29 | 20% |
| 2026-09-28 | 20% |
| 2026-09-27 | 23% |
| 2026-09-26 | 22% |
| 2026-09-25 | 22% |
| 2026-09-24 | 22% |
| 2026-09-23 | 22% |
| 2026-09-22 | 23% |
| 2026-09-21 | 24% |
| 2026-09-19 | 25% |
| 2026-09-18 | 24% |
| 2026-09-17 | 26% |
| 2026-09-16 | 25% |
| 2026-09-15 | 24% |
| 2026-09-14 | 29% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 34%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 35 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 29% on September 14, 2026 to 34% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 35 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 42%. The current reading of 34% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026” for 35 days, since September 14, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 34%. The chance for a yes has risen from 29% to 34%, ranging between 18% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.