Final tracked odds
As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 20%.
▼ 13 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 4, 2026
20%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | 20% | ▼ 13 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 20% |
| 2026-09-03 | 33% |
| 2026-09-02 | 46% |
| 2026-09-01 | 41% |
| 2026-08-18 | 18% |
| 2026-08-17 | 20% |
| 2026-08-16 | 16% |
| 2026-08-15 | 20% |
| 2026-08-14 | 20% |
| 2026-08-13 | 20% |
| 2026-08-12 | 17% |
| 2026-08-11 | 20% |
| 2026-08-10 | 20% |
| 2026-08-09 | 18% |
| 2026-08-08 | 16% |
| 2026-08-07 | 16% |
| 2026-08-06 | 16% |
| 2026-08-05 | 16% |
| 2026-08-04 | 15% |
| 2026-08-03 | 18% |
| 2026-08-02 | 21% |
| 2026-08-01 | 18% |
| 2026-07-31 | 18% |
| 2026-07-30 | 18% |
| 2026-07-29 | 18% |
| 2026-07-28 | 18% |
| 2026-07-27 | 20% |
| 2026-07-24 | 20% |
| 2026-07-23 | 20% |
| 2026-07-22 | 20% |
| 2026-07-21 | 20% |
| 2026-07-20 | 20% |
| 2026-07-16 | 22% |
| 2026-07-15 | 23% |
| 2026-07-13 | 24% |
| 2026-07-12 | 24% |
| 2026-07-11 | 24% |
| 2026-07-10 | 24% |
| 2026-07-09 | 24% |
| 2026-07-08 | 24% |
| 2026-07-07 | 24% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 20%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 41 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on July 7, 2026 to 20% on September 4, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 41 tracked days the odds ranged between 15% and 46%. The final reading of 20% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026” for 41 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 20%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 24% to 20%, ranging between 15% and 46% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.