Final tracked odds
As of October 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 22%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since September 3, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 27, 2026
22%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% | 22% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 22% |
| 2026-10-26 | 22% |
| 2026-10-25 | 20% |
| 2026-10-24 | 20% |
| 2026-10-23 | 22% |
| 2026-10-22 | 28% |
| 2026-10-21 | 18% |
| 2026-10-20 | 20% |
| 2026-10-19 | 20% |
| 2026-10-18 | 22% |
| 2026-10-17 | 22% |
| 2026-10-16 | 18% |
| 2026-10-15 | 18% |
| 2026-10-14 | 18% |
| 2026-09-29 | 20% |
| 2026-09-28 | 20% |
| 2026-09-13 | 40% |
| 2026-09-12 | 40% |
| 2026-09-11 | 36% |
| 2026-09-03 | 44% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 22%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 20 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 44% on September 3, 2026 to 22% on October 27, 2026 — a change of 22 points.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 20 tracked days the odds ranged between 18% and 44%. The final reading of 22% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting” for 20 days, since September 3, 2026. As of October 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 22%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 44% to 22%, ranging between 18% and 44% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.