Final tracked odds
As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 74%.
▼ 5 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Economy · tracked since July 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 29, 2026
74%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 79% | 74% | ▼ 5 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 74% |
| 2026-07-28 | 79% |
| 2026-07-27 | 73% |
| 2026-07-26 | 83% |
| 2026-07-25 | 78% |
| 2026-07-24 | 73% |
| 2026-07-23 | 74% |
| 2026-07-22 | 78% |
| 2026-07-21 | 88% |
| 2026-07-20 | 92% |
| 2026-07-19 | 95% |
| 2026-07-18 | 95% |
| 2026-07-17 | 95% |
| 2026-07-16 | 96% |
| 2026-07-15 | 95% |
| 2026-07-14 | 90% |
| 2026-07-13 | 64% |
| 2026-07-12 | 80% |
| 2026-07-11 | 78% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 74%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 19 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 78% on July 11, 2026 to 74% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 19 tracked days the odds ranged between 64% and 96%. The final reading of 74% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting” for 19 days, since July 11, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 74%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 78% to 74%, ranging between 64% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 29, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.