Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since August 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 10% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 10% |
| 2026-08-30 | 12% |
| 2026-08-29 | 12% |
| 2026-08-28 | 11% |
| 2026-08-27 | 10% |
| 2026-08-26 | 10% |
| 2026-08-25 | 10% |
| 2026-08-24 | 10% |
| 2026-08-23 | 12% |
| 2026-08-22 | 10% |
| 2026-08-21 | 9% |
| 2026-08-20 | 10% |
| 2026-08-19 | 10% |
| 2026-08-16 | 14% |
| 2026-08-15 | 14% |
| 2026-08-14 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 14, 2026 to 10% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 9% and 14%. The final reading of 10% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31” for 16 days, since August 14, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 10%, ranging between 9% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.