Final tracked odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 13%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 24 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Everything Else · tracked since July 31, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 6, 2026
13%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 13% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 13% |
| 2026-08-05 | 15% |
| 2026-08-01 | 33% |
| 2026-07-31 | 36% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 13%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on July 31, 2026 to 13% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 23 points.
- Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 13% and 36%. The final reading of 13% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal” for 4 days, since July 31, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 13%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 13%, ranging between 13% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.